Who knew that every prime number is one number away from a multiple of six? I didn't. That's what Wikipedia seems to think, though.

There are two kinds of farming: farming that is done inside fences, and farming that takes the form of a proactive symbiotic relationship with the environment at large.

I made a chart of the US trade balance in 2009 as compared to 2008. Our trade deficit has dropped by 44%.

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I did some research on Kiva. They get big hearted consumers to make zero-interest loans to microfinance institutions, which are then passed on to the needy at 35%. That translates to a nice profit for the financial institutions, as they're getting free loans which they then relend at high rates to people with no other choice. Default risk is transferred to the original 0% lenders.

Kiva says that its financial partners must express the "goal" of charging lower interest rates to the needy than they could get from any other company.

Seeing as how the financial institution takes on no risk (it's lending somebody else's money, not its own), and is making 35% on the funds it gets for free, this seems, well, worth looking into in more detail.

The questions for Kiva that I'd start with would be:

1. According to your website:*
   
   "There are three kinds of costs the MFI [microfinance institution] has to cover when it makes microloans. The first two, the cost of the money that it lends and the cost of loan defaults, are proportional to the amount lent. For instance, if the cost paid by the MFI for the money it lends is 10%, and it experiences defaults of 1% of the amount lent, then these two costs will total $11 for a loan of $100, and $55 for a loan of $500. An interest rate of 11% of the loan amount thus covers both these costs for either loan."
   
   If a microfinance institution that receives funds at 10% interest needs to charge 11% when it reloans the funds to others, then, by extension, a microfinance institution that receives funds at 0% interest would have to charge only 1% for the money it reloans to others.
   
   We might then expect that Kiva's partners, having the advantage of receiving 0% loans, should be able to charge an interest rate 10% lower than an institution serving the same community that was charged 10%. Is this the case?
   
   Likewise, in areas where other institutions are 15% for their loans, Kiva's partners should charge locals 15% less than their competition. Is this the case?
   
   If these numbers don't hold, then what is the margin of profit afforded to Kiva's partners due to the fact that they get the funds they are lending for free?
   
   [Note that I've posted the full context of the quote at the end of this entry.]



2. How is repayment on the part of the locals enforced?
3. Whose charitable donations cover the majority of Kiva's own operation?
4. What percent of your customers are aware that their chosen entrepreneurs are being charged 35% interest?

Those are the question's I'd ask Kiva. Having found the answers, I would then start asking questions of business-persons:

1. Can we start our own company?
2. If we charge reasonable rates to the locals, then will they ever borrow from anybody else?
3. If we charge rates low enough to encourage serious economic growth, will more and more local entrepreneurs clamor for funds that our customers can provide?
4. What is a reasonable profit margin for ourselves? If we're nonprofit, whose money will we depend on? If we're for-profit, will everyone think we're the devil, and, if so, is there anything we can do to moderate the effect?
5. Is there a shortage of poor people? Or a shortage of less-poor people that want to help? How much cash is out there waiting to be made?

*( Context of earlier quote from Kiva's website )

It was once considered patriotic to destroy ecosystems. Recognition of this fact is important in our fight to change our bad habits.

There are financial incentives for destroying natural resources. If you cut down a tree, all you get is the tree. If burn down the forest you get very large tax break.

We are currently under the impression that environmental destruction is the naturally expected result of the short-term interests of corporations and the starving poor. This keeps us from noticing potent mechanisms for change.

"House Democrats said they are proud that they found a way to finance the health care package largely from a tax on the wealthy. There is, however, little appetite for a millionaire's tax in the Senate, and some tax experts think it is a mistake to tap only rich people to pay for services used by all.

'If health care is a benefit that is worth having, then it's worth paying for,' said William Gale, who was an adviser to President George H. W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers and is now co-director of the Tax Policy Center. 'This gives the impression that it's only worth having if someone else pays for it."

- New York Times

I think it would also be misleading to imply that the program is only worthwhile to the very wealthy if someone else pays for it.

For example, 5 to 20 percent of the US population gets the flu every year. If you were to surmise that 10% of the working population loses an average of 3 productive days a year, that would translate to about $11.37 billion of lost productivity. The health care bill is projected to cost about $46.5 billion per year. Thus if, hypothetically, universal health care were to end flu via successful promotion of access to (and use of) a universal vaccine, that campaign alone would make up nearly a quarter of the cost for universal health care.

Next question: how would it affect the top 0.3% of the population that would be responsible for the taxes?

At first thought it looks obvious that it the program will result in a loss, to the very wealthy, of $46.5 billion per year.

But think about it. If you show up to work three more days next year than you did this year, will your salary immediately increase as a result? I doubt it. That $11.37 billion immediately results in increased profits to the firm, not you.

In the very long run, competition between the owners of different firms might result in a wage increase for you, as well as increased profits for them. At equilibrium we can expect that about 80% of the increase will go to the bottom 99.7% of the population. 20%, or $2.3 billion, will go to the wealthiest 0.3%.

So the taxpayers responsible for funding the program would recoup 5% of their losses if the funds were used to successfully promote universal use of, and access to, the flu vaccine.

Women: if you accuse a man of rape and lose the case, you will be sent to prison - a warning from the English Court of Appeal

15-year old girl gang-raped in Richmond High School courtyard; onlookers pass by - New York Times

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Apparently in most states apple juice and apple cider are legally identical. Informally, though, apple cider tends to be unpasteurized (so that it tastes better and ferments quickly) and flavored with spice.

I looked up the process of making apple cider at home from fresh apples. Unfortunately the pressing equipment is bulky and expensive (though quite stylish - if I had space and money it would be beautiful in the kitchen). The best way, I think, to get good apple cider would be to have a car and live near a farm. You could drive out to the farm and get fresh apple cider made from that day's overripe apples. Personally I'd rather buy it unspiced so I could make it different every time (with cloves, orange peel, cinnamon, chai, liqueur or whatever).

Unfortunately I neither have a car nor live near a farm, and farmer's markets close to me only open at annoying times. Therefore I think I have only three options: buy apple cider in the store (though it is expensive), use apple juice instead (though it is pasteurized), or make up other kinds of drinks, like hot spiced orange cider.

Supposing I wanted to create a web site where visitors could submit numbers and those numbers would be immediately added to a graph on that same said website. Where would I begin? Would I need to pay for web hosting that allows me to read and write to files on the fly?

Barnes and Noble just came out with its answer to Kindle, Amazon's e-reader. I've been waiting for a long time for a new eReader (I never liked Kindle), but I would've thought it would come from Apple first, or somebody else already established in the world of gadgetry.

The "nook" (what a successful name :) looks way way cool. It comes with half a million free books. Half a million free books! I'm going to have to check up on that one to make sure it's true. And another half million are for sale. You can highlight passages, write notes, play mp3s, view (black and white) pictures, loan copyrighted material to your friends, and go wireless anywhere in the country (to download books) via AT&T's 3G network for free. I don't know how they managed that last bit, but it's impressive.

Fed Chief Cites Role of Trade Imbalances in Crisis

"In his prepared remarks, Mr. Bernanke acknowledged that trade imbalances had declined sharply as a result of the crisis, mainly because trade itself plunged, but he warned that American foreign indebtedness would aggravate the imbalances once again unless the United States reduced its soaring federal budget deficit.

'The United States must increase its national saving rate,' he said. 'The most effective way to accomplish this goal is by establishing a sustainable fiscal trajectory, anchored by a clear commitment to substantially reduce federal deficits over time.”

I'm not sure that I agree. According to the Federal Reserve, outstanding debt in the United States in 2009 was about $34 trillion.

Government debt was $12 trillion; $4 trillion of this is called "intragovernmental debt," or money the government owes itself.

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The going conception of history is full of caboodle. One's BS detector shrieks so loudly that one deactivates it.

So You Think You Know Pasta - New York Times

"In recent years, Italy has transformed from a nation of emigrants to a nation of immigrants. But [eminent food historian] Ms. Zanini De Vita finds the running debate about whether immigrants can prepare Italian food ridiculous.

'It’s only a question of technique and ingredients, so it’s sheer stupidity to think that they can’t do it,' she said.

Still, she added, perhaps non-Italians are missing an ingredient.

'What would be harder for foreigners to do is to invent things,' she said. Or go on instinct. 'We have that inside our DNA,' she said."

Look to the stock market for the opinions of financial types; look to the news for the opinions of news types.

Our culture accepts violence in prisons.

This chart shows the closing values of the DOW from January 2005 to the present. The red lines indicate, respectively, the day I wrote my prediction of a major economic crisis and the day I suggested it was a good time to buy.

Pure luck, but still. :)


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_______________________
Officials: Abducted newborn safer in state custody

By LUCAS L. JOHNSON II
Associated Press Writer

State Takes Custody of Kidnapped Infant

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) -- A newborn boy abducted by a woman posing as an immigration agent was again taken from his mother after a brief reunion, this time by state officials who said the baby and his three siblings would be safest with foster parents.

... Johnson said officials made arrangements for Gurrolla to see her baby Saturday afternoon and hold him, four days after he was abducted. She brought her three other children - ages 3, 9 and 11 - to the reunion and all of the children were then taken into custody.

... Joel Siskovic, an FBI special agent in the Memphis division, said there was no indication of an ongoing threat to the family. He could not say why the children were put into state custody.

Gurrolla, 30, was stabbed in her home Tuesday during the kidnapping, just four days after giving birth to Yair Anthony Carillo.
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People like Gurrolla normally keep quiet. This scam should be taken seriously.